UnderDogBlog

Trying to keep it going tonight - A-10, MAC and Big East Action.

2012-01-25T16:40:00.000-05:00

Killed it last night so hopefully tonight is more of the same. For those of you where remembered about my 100 day/100 unit challenge here is how things are going so far (24 days in - I think it is a decent start).

Record: 12-9 + 15.3 units.

On to tonight...still staying away from NBA as it has been baffling to me.

Villanova +9.5 - Disappointing season but there is still talent there. Not sure how Louisville is still ranked or how they are going to beat teams by double digits. Maalik Wayns is the key and might play the whole game because their depth is shaky.

Villanova +9.5
5 units

Dayton +4 - Flyers are currently on top of A-10 even though Chris Johnson is having down year. Dayton is soaring off win vs. Xavier while St. Joes is reeling with three straight road losses. Dayton can come out focused and scoop another win outright.

Dayton +4
3 Units

Central Michigan +9 - I am not sure any MAC team should be favoured by 9, least of all Bowling Green who has a losing record in the conference and overall. Chippewas could have best player in the conference Trey Ziegler which is a nice advantage on the road.

Central Michigan +9
3 units

Like the card tonight

2012-01-24T16:28:00.000-05:00

Image via Wikipedia

Just a quickie to share some thoughts on games tonight.

I am liking a couple of road dogs in mid major conference play.

The first is Akron +2 at Ball State - The Zips are probably the best team in the MAC and won't be shy in Muncie. The Cardinals haven't beaten Akron since 2005. Zips are top 3 point shooting team in the conference.

Akron +2
5 units

I also like San Diego State +2.5 @ Wyoming - Cowboys are solid defensively but haven't beaten anyone this season - the computer rankings really like these guys. All their losses are by 10 or more. Aztecs are red hot and have proven they can win on the road. Beat a New Mexico team on the road that beat the same Cowboys by 10 in Laramie.

San Diego State
5 Units

...and one major conference play.

Taking Michigan +5 at Purdue. Both teams are looking to rebound but Michigan has more talent and keeps games close on the road most of the time.

Michigan
3 units

Its more than just Brady vs Flacco

2012-01-22T13:24:00.004-05:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

In all the buildup for today's game between New England and Baltimore everyone seems to be piling on Joe Flacco. He is not better than Tom Brady and probably never will...and he doesn't have to be because Baltimore probably has the better team.

That is just one of the reasons I am so surprised about the number on today's game making Baltimore at +7 an easy side to get behind.

Here are some others:

Baltimore's defense is about this much......................................................................better than New England's.
Their running game is this much...........................................better
Baltimore has covered the last two trips to Foxboro including a 2010 playoff trip in which they dominated

And I like this one the best. The Ravens have only lost by more than 7 points only 8 times since John Harbaugh took over as coach (in all games). Does today look like an anomaly to you...I don't think so. Expect a close game with great upset potential.

Baltimore Ravens +7

7 units

Earn a little back...

2012-01-17T17:34:00.000-05:00

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Still in shock with how thoroughly Kansas beat Baylor last night.

Tonight I am looking at the ACC and Maryland's visit to Florida State. FSU is coming off epic demolition of the Tar Heels so they have to be overvalued here. Terps are +11.5 and are enjoying a solid start to ACC play. They also one last three against Seminoles and covered last six against FSU. They are not a title contender but this is a solid team with some nice pieces. They should easily keep it in single digits and could even upset.

Maryland +11.5
3 units

Small card tonight but still a good value on...

2012-01-16T17:06:00.000-05:00

Usually when you think something is a no-brainer you get burned but tonight's play feels like that. I am just loving Baylor at +7 visiting Kansas. It is never easy to win in Lawrence but for maybe the first time ever the Bears are the most talented team...undefeated last time I checked. Shocked that the line is where it is.

Baylor Bears +7
5 Units

Quickie Hoops Plays on Thursday...Small plays.

2012-01-12T16:43:00.000-05:00

Image by sillygwailo via Flickr

No time for long writeups today but a couple of games caught my eye.

Detroit +1.5 - This team is underperforming right now. It is always tough to win on the road in the conference but they have the talent to do so and cover in the process obviously.

2 units

Gonzaga +3.5 - Two best teams face off in WCC (the other is St. Mary's). Gonzaga has all the talent to win and won't be intimidated on the road. All they need is their PGs to stay strong. If you can stay up late this is the game to watch.

2 units

PS. Rocked the money management early in the week winning both big bets. 100 day challenge is picking up steam.

Going Whole Hog on the Hardwood

2012-01-10T18:02:00.000-05:00

I don't have time to get to all the reasons but here are some other plays for this evening.

FSU +4.5
3 units

Iowa +14
2 units

Miami +16
2 units

Illinois +9
4 units

Getting ahead or courting disaster...only time will tell.

NBA Pick tonight too

2012-01-10T17:55:00.000-05:00

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The Washington Wizards have not won a game yet this season but are favoured tonight against Toronto. The only advantage I can see is that they did not play last night while Toronto did. Toronto hosted a Minnesota team that beat the Wizards by 21 points in their own house by 10 last night. Toronto is also one of the top defensive teams while Washington is one of the worst offensive teams. The Wizards are not going to go without a win all season but I don't like them to break through tonight either. Take the Raps as short dogs.

Toronto +2
2 units

No comment on BCS...Plus home hoops

2012-01-10T16:57:00.000-05:00

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Yikes, that was an ugly game last night..I knew I should have passed on LSU but everyone was talking about it. I was up for the week until then so hopefully we can get back in the black tonight.

There is a bunch of games I like tonight so hopefully I can make a few quick posts over the next couple of hours. Hmmm, where to start. How about Big 12 hoops where Baylor is +3 at Kansas State. There are obviously lots of reasons to like the Wildcats after they dismantled Mizzou but Baylor is a totally different team. They have tons of length and are one of the top defensive teams in the nation. Also, do you really think that K-State is going to end two teams run at perfection back to back. I don't.

Baylor +3

5 Units

Everyone's got an Opinion...here's mine

2012-01-09T16:02:00.000-05:00

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Tonight't the BCS Championship game. I am not a big fan of rematches (for a lot of reasons) but I do think this should be a very good game.

Regardless of the outcome though, I am shocked that Alabama is favoured. I know there are a lot of factors in play but it is so interesting that the #1 ranked team, that has already beaten its opponent, playing a game in their second home doesn't get the favourite status.

I just have to go with LSU...keeping this short because too much has been said about this game already.

LSU Tigers +2
3 units

Friday is light so another look ahead to the weekend

2012-01-06T14:07:00.000-05:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

How about that Michigan-Indiana game last night, called it (although I was horribly off on the Mavs so I can't brag too much). Tonight is a little light with not much on the college hardwood. As a result I am looking ahead again to some pigskin on the weekend.

The game I am zeroing in on is the GoDaddy.com bowl, hopefully the game will be as good as the commercials. I really like Northern Illinois as the small dog facing Arkansas State. It has been a record breaking season for the Red Wolves who swept the Sun Belt on their way to a fantastic 10-2 record. Those two losses were to Illinois and Virginia Tech, two physical teams that run the ball well behind big offensive lines. The same can be said for Northern Illinois who is 9th in the nation rushing the football at almost 250 yards per game. They play like a team from the Big Ten with a massive line and have one of the best dual threat QBs in Chandler Harnish, a senior playing his last game. Their defense certainly gives up points but they are going to be tough to stop. One defensive stop per half might be all that is needed to win.

Northern Illinois +2
4 Units

First 2012 Look at the NBA

2012-01-05T17:07:00.003-05:00

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The Spurs suffered a crushing injury with the loss of Manu Ginobili. He was their leading scorer but if you have ever watched a Spurs game you know he was much more than that. Since the injury they have played one game, a 6 point home win against Golden State. The production they got from his spot was less than normal as they are trying to fill it with a combination of players.

Tonight against Dallas I think the Spurs are a good fade candidate so take the Mavs +2. Dallas was off to a sluggish start but they are playing better lately. Both teams are on back to backs and the travel is negligible for the road team. Monta Ellis exploded for the Warriors last night with a 38 point game. I think Dallas will also find a way to take advantage and with Ginobili out they have a hug advantage down the stretch of a close game. Also, the Spurs could be winded from last night. They needed a huge 4th quarter to get the victory.

Dallas Mavericks +2
3 Units

Sticking with the Big Ten

2012-01-05T14:20:00.000-05:00

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Road teams in the Big Ten have been faring well this week with Michigan State and Illinois (yesterday's pick) outright upset winners. Tonight I am looking to fade the team that has made the biggest splash in tehe conference this year, the Indiana Hoosiers, when they take on the Michigan Wolverines who are +7.

We are all well aware of the the Hoosiers great home wins against Kentucky and Ohio State but I think that has inflated their value for this one. I like Michigan to play it close to the final possession with Tim Hardaway Jr. being able to make some big plays and them using all of their bigs to stymie Hoosier frosh Cody Zeller. Michigan also has a great freshman in guard Trey Burke who will need to make some shots. It should be entertaining.

Michigan Wolverines +7
3 units

On the Hardwood...Big ten

2012-01-04T17:40:00.001-05:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Winning on the road in a conference like the Big Ten is never easy. But the fact that Northwestern is only a 2 point favourite hosting Illinois shows what is thought about these two teams. John Shurna is a very nce player for the Wildcats but they are going to find it difficult to slow a very good backout of D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, let alone big man Meyers Leonard.

Take the Illini +2
3 units

P.S. It might be the week for road upset in the Big 10. MSU last night, Illinois tonight.

Squeezing the Orange

2012-01-04T17:20:00.003-05:00

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Another exciting, if not stellarly played, bowl game last night. Am I alone in thinking that Virginia Tech had about 7 chances to put the game away and failed? As a result we ended up with the dreaded push and a 0-1-1 record yesterday.

Tonight I am looking to get down on three contests including the Orange Bowl which offers another 3 point spread. I like the Mountaineers in a game that will probably feature a bit more offense, certainly through the air. Here is what I am seeing:

an overrated Clemson squad that has three double digit losses
an underrated WVU team that won the last three in must win scenarios

These teams mirror each other in a lot of way but I think the Tigers are going to feel the loss of DeAndre Hopkins making it tougher for Sammy Watkins to get free...and I like the West Virginia pass rush to meet expectations after having a down year. Look for Bruce Irvin to show his pro skills in his final collegiate game.

West Virginia +3

3 Units

Too simplistic??

2012-01-03T17:03:00.000-05:00

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There is a lot of talk about the resurrection of the Michigan Wolverines. I agree that the program is heading in the right direction but I am not sure they will be able to count on using this game as the spring board to 2012. I do think that Virginia Tech probably shouldn't be here but I am not sure Michigan deserved the nod either...but what can you do. A computer said so!

In looking at the game I went straight to the numbers from the VT game against Georgia Tech earlier this season. In that one they were able to keep a very good running QB, Tevin Washington, in check leading to a fairly easy victory. The key for the Hokies will be slowing down Denard Robinson while getting their own running game going early so they can create the balance that Logan Thomas will need to be successful. I think Michigan will struggle to slow down the Hokies run game featuring David Wilson and that their overall defensive stats are inflated by the way they dominated in their conference schedule. In the last game of the year Braxton Miller was very effective running and throwing and nobody thinks he is much a of QB. As long as Thomas doesn't implode the Hokies should be in it all the way and win it.

Virginia Tech +3
3 units

Day # 2 - College Hoops pick tonight, going Summit

2012-01-03T13:06:00.001-05:00

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Wow..what a game last night. Just imagine the intensity we would have seen if the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl were part of some super sensible playoff system.

Well that is enough thinking about unicorns for today. Now to the task at hand.

Day 2:

Oral Roberts @ Oakland +3

Oakland has dominated the Summit the last couple of years as Keith Benson was its most dominant player. He has moved on so the debate is more wide open but Grizzlies might still have the leagues top player in speedy guard Reggie Hamilton. Hamilton is averaging 22ppg and has Oakland scoring 77ppg. Oral Roberts might be the horse to back in the conference race but they haven't beaten Oakland on the road since 2009 and spotting the home team 3 points is a bet I will gladly take in a conference rivalry. Don't get fooled by the Golden Eagles' easy win against Xavier, that was just after that team's brawl against Cincinnati.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies +3
3 units

Getting started by looking way ahead...(a week)

2012-01-02T10:16:00.000-05:00

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Day 1:

Normally I wait until closer to game time to bet the NFL but I really like the +3 being offered on Cincinnati right now and think it might change as we get closer.

The Bengals may have backed their way into playoffs this year but there are lots of reasons to like them in addition to the struggles of Houston. How about:

Great road performance including 5-1-2 ATS
Top 10 defense (in all major categories)
A little revenge - The Texans scored a late TD a month ago forcing Cincy to sweat qualifying

Almost as importantly there is little reason to feel good about Houston right now. They may have qualified for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history but their injuries are going to make it very tough for them to win.

Cincinnati Bengals +3

5 units

Here's the new thing....100 Day - 100 Unit Challenge

2012-01-01T20:55:00.001-05:00

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Its the New Year and I needed a new challenge.

Ever since I started this blog I have always kept my units per wager even. That has helped me focus mainly on the handicapping and not money management, but that is only half the equation, right? This year I want to start getting better on the MM side so I am going to start adjusting the units wagered per contest. I know there has been some money left on the table as well as sometimes where I might have suffered.

To get really into this I am putting a challenge to myself of trying to be up a net of 100 units by the 100th day of the year - which I think is April 15th. I am calling it the 100 Day - 100 Unit Challenge, brilliant right.

Feel free to follow a long and chime in.

Its the new year and time to get to winning.

2011 Summary - A pretty good year

2012-01-01T10:10:00.001-05:00

I know I had been lax on updating results.

Here is the final tally for 2011.

Record: 55-48-2
+22.23 Units

Happy New Year (2012)

2012-01-01T09:21:00.000-05:00

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Hi there,

Happy New Year...2012 is going to be epic (maybe).

Been a little neglectful of the blog of late and it has been killing me. I have an idea that will hopefully kick it up a notch. Stay tuned.

Last Regular Season version of NFL Leans

2011-12-28T10:12:00.000-05:00

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The last week of the season is always a bit of a crap shoot. This year it feels like there are more games that will actually affect the playoff picture but I have a hunch that people write that every year. I think the playoffs will be awesome this year but only a couple of Week 17 games caught my attention. See below.

Buffalo +11.5
San Diego +3

P.S. I hope you have been watching The League - hilarious

Getting back to it...and Happy Holidays

2011-12-22T16:00:00.000-05:00

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It has been way too long since my last post I am almost not sure what to write. Better stick to my knitting and focus on NFL leans as I ease back into it.

Here goes...

Indianapolis +6.5
St. Louis +17
Buffalo +1.5
Minnesota +7
Philadelphia +1

War Eagle.

2011-12-09T20:10:00.001-05:00

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Hey there fans...Sorry it has been such a quiet week for the UnderdogBlog. I am going to save some early bowl leans for next week but couldn't let this week go by without at least making one play so here goes. No frills style.

Take the Eagles +3 if Vick is playing against Miami. The team and coach Reid is under more heat that most realize. There is talk that if they don't win their last 4 to finish 8-8 they might blow this thing up. This is the easiest one.

Philadelphia Eagles +3
3 Units

Wednesday NFL Leans

2011-12-07T17:52:00.001-05:00

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Not a ton to choose from this week but here are the dogs I am keeping my eye on.

Philadelphia +3 (if Vick is back)
Carolina +2.5
Jacksonville +1
Oakland +11
New York Giants +3.5

Los Raiders

2011-12-01T17:57:00.001-05:00

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It just doesn't feel right that the Raiders are the underdogs this week at Miami. Yes Miami is not as horrible as their record indicates but the Raiders have their mojo going right now and are looking like a team that is heading to the playoffs. Plus Miami doesn't have a great home field advantage - I would have made this one a PK

I know that is a lot of touchy feely stuff but here are some numbers I dug up on nflteamtrends.com They let you explore any angle you like. Its sweet

They are a perfect 5-0 ATS as road dogs this year.

Over the last 5 season 26-18-1

Oakland Raiders +3
3 units

Still NFL Leans

2011-11-30T17:26:00.001-05:00

Image by John McNab via Flickr

Only 1-3 in college hoops last night...Sorry about that but who knew Duke would play its worst game in a long time. I guess the answer to that is Ohio State backers.

Anyways on to the NFL Leans.

Oakland +3
Cincinnati +7.5

Just a couple and I am keeping an eye on that Giants number vs GB

No time for Leans today...Lets jump to picks

2011-11-29T17:34:00.001-05:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Isn't it nice how college football blends right into college hoops. I think so.

Normally on a Tuesday I would be sharing my leans for the week's CFB action but instead I am going to dive right into college hoops. My success is spotty when I include more than one game in a post but in the interests of time there was no other way. I have three games from the ACC-Big Ten Challege as well as one from out west that nobody is talking about.

Michigan +3.5 @ Virginia
The Wolverines are looking good in the early going. This will be a tough test but Virginia is overrated and already lost at home to TCU. Look for an outright upset here and take the points as a cushion. Big Blue's one loss @ Duke.

Miami +9 @ Purdue
The Boilermakers may have the best player in Robbie Hummel but I like the Cane's backcourt and the way they play defense. This team is really athletic and can overcome bad shooting on the road in need be. Again these guys could upset on the road.

Duke +7.5 @ Ohio State
Two of the best teams in the country and I am surprised by the large number. Duke has plenty of size to bother Sullinger and is balanced with 5 scorers in double figures. They won't be intimidated by the venue either. Again: Upset watch

Arizona +3 @ New Mexico State
AZ has been in a funk with back to back losses. Still this is a team that should contend for the PAC 10 title and is just finding its way. The Aggies are no pushover and will defend their homecourt but I think they will come up just short. Wendell McKines won't be able to just power through the Wildcats like he has other opponents.

Better get picking...Lets go NFL to Start this week.

2011-11-23T15:53:00.001-05:00

I am pretty psyched for the Turkey day lineup, especially game numero uno pitting the Perfect Packers against the Lions +6.

Lots of reasons to like Detroit here: they are at home, the running game might be finally developing, Matt Stafford was red hot last week and they got the monkey off their back by beating Green Bay last year. Sure it is Green Bay and they are absolutely very good but the odds are they will lose at some point. This seems as logical a spot as any.

Detroit +6
3 Units

Turkey Week Leans in the NFL

2011-11-22T18:25:00.001-05:00

Image by San Diego Shooter via Flickr

Turkey is shaping up like a trio of good matchups including two of my early (perhaps not so) leans. If Miami was fighting for a playoff spot we would have a trifecta.

Detroit +7
SF +3
TB +3

You guessed it...Tuesday Leans Time

2011-11-22T17:13:00.001-05:00

Image by Kanaka Menehune via Flickr

Thanksgiving brings many great gifts...like non MAC football midweek. That is not meant to be an insult to the MAC. The games have been very exciting.

Louisville +3

Iowa +9.5

Bowling Green +2.5

Syracuse +3

Nevada +1.5

Auburn +21 (especially is LSU wins)

No pick but please read anyway...BCS Stuff

2011-11-22T09:31:00.001-05:00

It is that time of year when the BCS is dominating the hearts and minds of college football fans...and with good reason. I was thinking about it this morning and wondered if the following unfathomable scenario is possible.

Could a championship game feature two teams with neither of them being conference champs.

Think of this scenario

LSU beats Arkansas
Alabama beats Auburn
Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma

(there are a whole bunch of teams that could also lose to teams they shouldn't but I think this takes it far enough.

In the SEC championship game Georgia beats LSU (a small possibility but not exactly the largest upset of all time).

I think in a scenario like that Alabama would jump to the top but would LSU fall further than the #2 spot (without manipulation). The game could be close plus it is in Atlanta, Georgia's second home.

If it all played out than we would not only have two SEC teams but neither of them would be the championship team, that would be the Bulldogs (technically). It doesn't seem all that far fetched and is helped by the fact that Virginia Tech could easily lose again to Clemson in the ACC title game. Stanford won't even compete for the title in the PAC 12 and Boise has no games left to get a huge boost.

Things could get real ugly.

Thoughts?

Oh no...the Chargers Again.

2011-11-18T12:31:00.001-05:00

I am sure I am not the only one there who feels like they have been backing the Chargers like a sucker this season. I was sworn off them a couple of weeks ago but found them back in my mind because I just don't get this Bears team. They have only one weapon (Matt Forte), possibly two (if you count Devin Hester as a returner) that I think make them fairly easy to game plan for. Yet they keep winning ball games. Something has to give from my perspective and now they are facing a desperate SD team that now has to win to keep pace with the emerging Raiders and Broncos. They are on the road but the later start mitigates some of that west to east stuff. They just have to win and Phillip Rivers has to play better. I think we see both.

San Diego +3.5
3 Units.

Need some more fuel...check out this trend I out together on NFLTeamTrends.com

www.nflteamtrends.com

Time to get Pickin...SEC style

2011-11-16T18:18:00.001-05:00

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Is there a game in the SEC this year that has less juice this year than Tennessee vs Vanderbilt. The Vols usually crush their in state smart little brothers but Big Orange has struggled so much this year that Vady is actually the favourite. Tennessee has a miserable offense but their defense is still pretty sound and I think that will be enough for them to rally behind in their last home game of the season. Vandy hasn't won at Tennessee since 2005.

Tennessee +1.5
3 Units

NFL Leans...just a couple

2011-11-16T17:13:00.001-05:00

Image by Audi USA via Flickr

Just took my first look at the lines for the NFL this week...I know, it has been that kind of week. Some interesting stuff out there with 3 picks - sounds like teaserville.

Anyway, there were just a couple of dogs that barked at me

Buffalo +1
San Diego +3.5

First college hoops play of the new season

2011-11-15T18:15:00.001-05:00

Tonight there are some fantastic matchups as part of ESPN's hoops marathon. It might not be getting as much pub as others but I love Florida at Ohio State. Patric Young is a beast and more than good enough to hold his own against Sullinger...and on the perimeter almost nobody is loaded like Florida is with Walker, Boynton, Beal and Rosario. They can't all be in a shooting slump so take the Gators.

Florida +10
3 Units

Is it Tuesday already...Time for some leans

2011-11-14T16:59:00.001-05:00

Image by Joits via Flickr

Killer day so I am lucky to get the leans out.

PS - Thank you MAC for the early football infusion

Here they are.

Western Michigan +1.5
Louisville +1
Nebraska +3
Rutgers +3
Tennessee +1.5
Baylor +14
USC +14.5
California +19

Love or Fade...Detroit is making money as a dog

2011-11-10T17:22:00.001-05:00

A this point in the season it is definitely easy to have a few teams you really like (or love) and those you have to fade. In the latter I am firmly in belief that Tennessee and Washington are garbage masked as mediocre. It paid off last week with Cincy upsetting the Titans on the road. In the love category I have to admit that I am smitten with the Detroit Lions. As the graphic below shows they have been very profitable as an underdog the last couple of season. With their high powered offense and emerging defense they are never out of a game and now that they are winning more of them they are even more valuable.

As a result I think there is great value with Detroit +2.5 at Chicago. I think they will win outright and the value is great due to Chicago's win at Philly last week and the fact that the Lions were off last week - out of sight out of mind.

Detroit Lions +2.5
3 Units

www.nflteamtrends.com

Time to get pickin...Go Canes

2011-11-10T12:31:00.001-05:00

Image via Wikipedia...lets start with some college this weekend. (sigh, only a few more weeks left - it goes by so fast)

Remember when Miami-FSU was the best game of the year? Helping to determine national championships and featuring two dozen NFL prospects or more. My how the mighty have fallen. This game might not mean much nationally or even in the ACC but it still means a lot to the teams and I think Hurricanes coach Al Golden will definitely be calling it their Super Bowl. The line on this one is 9 in most places which makes it the biggest in the series since 2003. Last year FSU blew out the Hurricanes but before that the last 8 has been decided by 8 points or less. Miami has a solid running game and Jacory Harris has kept it together this year. Even on the road they should be able to hang with the 'Noles who are very one dimensional on offense. I am not ready to call upset but I think this plays to form as being another close one.

Miami Hurricanes +9
3 Units

and now for leans NFL style.

2011-11-08T16:42:00.000-05:00

Image by USAG-Humphreys via FlickrAnother heads up with this one. NFL network is launching their Thursday night coverage with SD vs OAK. With those two teams who know what you are going to get.

And now the leans...

Tampa +3
Detroit +2.5

Sorry that is it or now. No monster spreadies this week.

Its Tuesday Leans time!!!

2011-11-08T15:55:00.000-05:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeNo fancy introduction other than to say, tune in early this week those MAC specials are fantastic.

West Virginia +3.5
Miami +9
Navy +8.5
TCU +15
Mississippi State +16.5
ECU +3

Going Back to the Well

2011-11-04T16:48:00.002-04:00

Image by Jess J via FlickrAs an investor there is nothing harder than getting behind a team that has failed you in the past. We tend to remember the losses more than the victories and in this case the loss was just last week. Still I am very high on Syracuse as a short favourite visiting Connecticut this week. They are just +2 but I expect them to win outright, if only to prove that last week against Louisville was not true indicator of the measure of the team. I like their balance on offense and QB Ryan Nassib can chuck the ball around a little bit should they find themselves down at all. The Huskies will compete at home by they just don't score a lot of points.

Syracuse +2
3 Units

An NFL Play..Bengals +2

2011-11-04T15:56:00.003-04:00

I have a couple of strong fade teams right now. Both got some early victories leaving many to think they might exceed expectations but I think it is just a mirage. One of those teams is the Tennessee Titans which is why I am really high on Cincinnati this week. They are 5-2 and with a win they can leap frog the loser of the war between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. This team has a sneaky good defense and good offensive balance with a a nice throw/catch combo of rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. They are only +2 so "they" think it will be tight. This definitely falls into the category of pick the winner and the spread should follow.

Cincinnati Bengals +2
3 units

PS - There is a cool new site out there called NFLteamstrends.com. They let you cobble together your own trend data and have a really cool feature where you can see the ROI of the trend giving you a sense as to how profitable it has been in the past. They are a new friend to the blog so you may see graphics like one from time to time. Click the image to visit the site.

And now the NFL Leans...err AFC North

2011-11-02T17:47:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeIt wasn't until I wrote this sentence that I realized all three teams below are in the same division. If you have been following for a while you know I love themed posts. I usually wind up betting them all.

Cleveland +12.5
Cincinnati +2
Baltimore +3

Huskies looking to take a bite

2011-11-01T17:07:00.003-04:00

Image via WikipediaYou have to love the MAC if for no other reason than that they will play any day of the week to get the league on TV. I truly mean that as a compliment and love the MAC for pure entertainment and wagering value.

Tonight I also love the Northern Illinois Huskies at +9.5. It has risen up from +7 for this critical MAC West divisional game. It is simple if UNI can beat Toledo they are in the race for the Championship. Lose and a second tier, by MAC standards, bowl awaits. I was really high on UNI preseason but some early losses took some of their lustre away. I look for them to be super physical and run the ball a ton in a bit of a see-saw affair. Toledo has struggled against physical running teams in all of their losses.

If you are thinking the same way then definitely do not look up the Huskies record in the Glass Bowl - they are downright putrid.

Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5
3 units

Drumroll..its the Tuesday leans

2011-11-01T13:27:00.000-04:00

Image by San Diego Shooter via FlickrLots of games included the MAC week opener tonight.

Here are the leans:

Northern Illinois +8.5
Syracuse +1.5 - I know, burned last week.
Texas A&M +13
Texas Tech +12
ECU +8.5
Wake Forest +14
LSU + 5 - Where will this one land.

Happy Hunting.

A second CFB game on the docket...Does anybody have the pulse on the Big East

2011-10-26T17:47:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaDoes anybody know what is going to happen in the Big East from week to week? Which teams are going, staying? Which teams are good, not?

I was very impressed with Syracuse's domination of West Virginia last week. This program is definitely on the up and up. This week they are on the road at Louisville, which is a tough, physical, though not overly talented team. Syracuse is on a roll and I would have made the game a pick'em. Getting +3 with the hot hand is very enjoyable.

Syracuse Orange +3

3 Units

First CFB play of the Week

2011-10-26T14:20:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeThere are two ways to look at Illinois right now.

1) A team that is unravelling
2) A huge betting opportunity

I wouldn't be writing this unless I truly believed they were the latter. Yes they have lost two in a row but the Penn State offense is bad enough that I like any time they are giving up points. On the Illinois side of things I think they will work some things out and play cleaner on Saturday, I am looking for a big game by Nathan Scheelhaase running the ball - he needs to mix it up some more. Do you like trend information - the Illini have covered on their last 4 trips to Happy Valley. Love the upset potential here too.

Illinois +5
3 units

No NFL Dog Leans this weekend...AGAIN

2011-10-26T12:23:00.001-04:00

Image by San Diego Shooter via FlickrFor the second time in three weeks I am at a loss for NFL leans. I would have thought that with so many big numbers something would spark but some teams are just unbettable right now.

Don't worry, if anything changes you will see something here.

Another episode of....Tuesday CFB leans...YAY

2011-10-25T17:19:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaFinally saw some upsets last week...here's hoping they keep coming.

The Tuesday leans are:

Syracuse +3
Michigan State +4
UAB +6
Illinois+5
Navy +20
Colorado +31

Fun on Friday...Mr. Hamburger says take USC +9.5

2011-10-21T11:10:00.001-04:00

GoAnimate.com: USC +9.5 - October 22

Like it? Create your own at GoAnimate.com. It's free and fun!

Lets get picking...GT invades Miami.

2011-10-19T16:21:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaIf I can I love featuring games where I think the underdog might win outright. This is one of those situations as Georgia Tech +2.5 is heading to Miami to take on the Hurricanes. Tech was stunned on the road last week against Virginia where some bad throws by Tevin Washington sunk the Yellow Jackets. But they are still in the driver's seat in the ACC Coastal. They need to get this win with Clemson and Virginia Tech both at home in the weeks to come. This team is predictable with their vaunted rushing attack but it works...and before last week they were having more success through the air than usual. Yes the Hurricanes have looked good at times but you never really know what you are going to get. This is a game where discipline will be required and that is not their strong suit. Miami has won the last two and they haven't really been close. Still I believe that GT is the right side. Keep an eye on this one throughout the week. I think as game times approaches the money will flow in on the favourite so you may want to wait until just before kickoff.

Georgia Tech +2.5
3 units

...and now to the NFL

2011-10-18T15:35:00.001-04:00

Poppy Montgomery (Image via RottenTomatoes.com)Last week there were no early dog leans in what wound up being a week dominated by the favourites...so I guess I was on point for the most part. This week again there is slim pickings although there are a couple of Pick'ems and short spreads that might swing over the course of the week.

Here are my two early leans:

Tampa +1
Houston +3

Lots of Tuesday Leans - CFB

2011-10-18T14:43:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeTime for another addition of Tuesday leans. This week there are lots of them.

UAB +16
North Carolina +10
Indiana +23.5
Georgia Tech +2.5
Colorado +32
Air Force +31
Army +10.5
Miami (O) +17
Northwestern +4
USC (+8.5)

northwestern has owned the Hawkeyes lately...will it continue?

2011-10-13T17:45:00.003-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeThere are always some teams that seem to be overly underrated. I think Northwestern is one of those teams in general but especially this week facing Iowa . The Wildcats are +6.5 heading to Iowa City to face a familiar foe, one they have dominated lately.

The numbers are jarring.

3 straight wins for NW against Iowa
5 of last 6 for NW
3 straight wins at Iowa

Some teams just have another's number and this appears to be one of those situations. Plus you have to like Dan Persa in an underdog role and Iowa just didn't look right against Penn State last week scoring just 3 points.

Northwestern Wildcats +6.5

3 Units

Navy +4

2011-10-13T17:01:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeI always like the service academies and admit to having made some coin thanks to the Middies over the years. Last week they got steamrolled by Southern Miss which no doubt contributes to the fact that they are +4 against a Rutgers team that is probably overhyped after beating up Pitt last week. The Panthers killed themselves with turnovers, something Navy rarely does, and the win might have the Scarlet Knights a little overconfident.

Navy is one of the most consistent programs in the country so you have to think that after being embarrassed they will play well. Also consider that the last time Rutgers played a triple option team was at home last season - Army. They gave up close to 300 yards on the ground and barely escaped with a win. Navy should be able to keep it close and is a great upset candidate.

Navy +4
3 units

NFL Leans...No dogs are barking

2011-10-12T17:15:00.000-04:00

Image by San Diego Shooter via FlickrI just did my review of the NFL card and was surprised that no dogs were nipping at me. Are we officially at the time of the year where the lines are at their sharpest. I hope not!!

Getting out the CFB Leans

2011-10-12T16:11:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeJust 1-2 for football last weekend...bummer.

Here are this week's CFB leans.

Bowling Green +7

Louisville +16.5

Baylor +9.5

Navy +4

Northern Illinois +1.5

UCF +3

BYU +2

Another CFB Play...Northwestern +7.5

2011-10-07T12:13:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaThere is a lot of buzz about Northwestern putting a kybosh on Michigan's return to prominence. The Wildcats are +7.5 yet in several places they are being predicted as the outright winner. The Power Ratings might not support this view but I think there is good reason to back the hopefully Persa Strong smart guys from Northwestern.

First off they showed last week that the offense can be lethal with Persa orchestrating the attack. He is still a bit hobbled but at home he looks to continue to build his legend. Also, I like the fact that NW hemmed in Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase last week. Sure he shredded them through the air but he is a much more advanced passer than Michigan QB Denard Robinson. If they can keep him in check and force him to throw then the upset on top of the cover is a real possibility.

Northwestern Wildcats +7.5
3 Units

NFL Play...Oakland +6

2011-10-06T17:40:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaIf you will recall from the leans post there were a bunch of +1 games. I just might bet them all as picking the outright winner when spreads are below a tough is a winning proposition. But for now I am going to focus on the one game that wasn't - Oakland +6 at Houston.

Houston is 3-1 but I think they are inflated right now. They had great timing for games against Indianapolis and Miami and took advantage of a surprisingly average Pittsburgh team. In the middle of all that they were dominated by New Orleans, the only real good team on their schedule thus far. There is always a physicality hangover for teams after they play Pitt and they will be without leading receiver Andre Johnson this weekend. The only thing to like about HOU is that Arian Foster is back but both of his backups may miss this one.

On the Oakland side I think they will be able to move the ball on the ground, chew clock and play defense. Against a team with a lockdown corner the loss of Johnson might not be as big a deal but for Oakland, a team not strong in the secondary the timing is perfect. This game should come down to a FG.

Oakland Raiders +6
3 Units

CFB Play for Saturday - Iowa +4

2011-10-06T14:57:00.001-04:00

Image by eytonz via FlickrThere is a game in the Big Ten which is flying under the radar right now - Iowa @ Penn State. The Hawkeyes are +4 which is pretty indicative of how evenly matched these teams are. As you work through your card for the weekend here are some things to think about

Penn State is 0-5 ATS this year
Iowa has won the last three and eight of 9
Penn State struggles to score - only once have they broken 16 points this season against Eastern Michigan
definitely prefer the Iowa QB situation where Vandenburg is underrated as compared to PSU yo-yo.

I think that is enough. This is a big one as whoever wins can stay in their divisional race

Iowa Hawkeyes +4

3 Units

Update Time

2011-10-05T18:05:00.000-04:00

Been up and down lately with football but a couple of MLB playoffs wins are pushing the units higher for the year.

Current record: 46-41-2 +18.84 units

And the NFL Leans

2011-10-05T17:24:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeLots of short odds this week

Buffalo +1
Cincinnati +1
KC +1
Arizona +1
OAK +5.5
TB +1

Lots of teaser potential with those numbers

Another session of Tuesday Leans

2011-10-04T17:59:00.000-04:00

Image by vagueonthehow via FlickrI had to get a little deeper into the card than expected as none of the early games seemed all that appealing. Still i have a nice list of games to pick apart through the week.

Iowa +4
CMU +11.5
Mizzou +3
Miami +7.5
Southern Miss +2.5
Northwestern +7.5

Rangers tonight

2011-10-03T13:59:00.000-04:00

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

This is the first time I will ever say that I hope you missed the last post regarding the D-Backs. There wasn't a lot of time to act on that one and I hope you stood clear so that you, unlike me, could have kept your hard earned money.

Tonight I am looking at Rays/Rangers and like the value of Texas hitting the road. There are a few things to think of here.

First, David Price had a mediocre season - he was just 4-9 (8-10 on the ML) at home with an ERA of 3.71 this season.

Second - he has not been good against Texas in his career 0-5 (3-5 on the ML)

Third - Despite last weeks's monster comeback against the Yankees the the Rays are not a good hitting team at home - .236BA while averaging 3.8 runs

Those are all good reasons to fade the Rays tonight.

On the Texas side, the opener aside Texas hits lefties pretty well .268BA while scoring 5.1 runs per game.

Also starter Colby Lewis has been better on the road 9-5 and is 2-0 (3-1 on the ML) with a 3.27 ERA in 4 career starts against the Rays.

Texas Rangers
3 units

Quick...Play Arizona

2011-10-02T16:57:00.003-04:00

Love the value on the D-Backs this afternoon.

That is all I have time to write

Arizona D-Back
3 units

Still time to get down...yay Rays

2011-10-01T11:19:00.001-04:00

Hope some of you got down on the Rays yesterday. The magic continues.

This afternoon I am looking to play with some of that Rays money by backing ECU +6 vs North Carolina. That Pirates defense is still pretty bad but they are at home and can still put points on the board. UNC got beat up physically last week and on the road I expect a less than sharp performance. ECU is always good for a scare so this could be it.

ECU +6
3 units

Beware of the Rays

2011-09-30T13:46:00.002-04:00

Image via WikipediaWhat a finish by the Rays. After all that you would think they would have a better option than a rookie with one start under his belt - but what a start it was - 11 K, 4 hits, 0 runs at Yankee Stadium in a must win situation.

Matt Moore really is something special and even though you can't ignore the fact that he is going up against a pitcher with playoff experience you also can't ignore the value on TB. You know this team isn't going to give up. You know Moore has fantastic stuff. You know the Rays score more easily on the road than at home and you know they are a team of destiny? Maybe.

With both dogs paying off at better than 2:1 I am really banking on one of them coming through for an overall payoff. Still you got to like the Rays chances in this one.

Tampa Rays
3 units

Playoff Baseball...getting started

2011-09-30T11:54:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaLast weekend for football wasn't the greatest which is why I am psyched that we have playoff baseball to add to the options for the next couple of weeks. What an amazing finish to the season by the way.

Baseball wagering is awesome because you can get great payoffs and if you play the dogs like you know I do your win percentage doesn't have to be quite as high.

On to today's action. With the odds what they are I think there is tremendous value on both AL underdogs.

First the most obvious one Detroit vs New York. I say obvious because with Justin Verlander on the hill, even against New York you have to like your chances, right? Sure he is squaring off against C.C. Sabathia but at better than 2:1 payoff I think there is great value in taking the Tigers. Full disclosure: Verlander was a dog only two times all season long and lost both (to New York and Sabathia in the season opener and Boston/Beckett in April). Another truth - Verlander hasn't beaten New York since 2010 and doesn't have a great record against them. However, only once in his last 10 starts against the Yankees has he given up more than 3 runs. Again the value is just too good for me to ignore taking this year's best pitcher.

Detroit Tigers
3 Units

P.S. Since joining the Yankees they are just 3-3 against Detroit when Sabathia starts.

Hopefully will be able to take a closer look at TB/TEX later today

NFL Leans

2011-09-29T21:47:00.001-04:00

Here's a quick list of the games I am looking closely at:

SF +9
KC +1.5
Detroit +1
Carolina +7

Wednesday CFB Leans

2011-09-28T17:44:00.000-04:00

Last weekend was one to forget so hopefully this one will be much better. Here is a look at the games I am looking at more closely.

BC +2.5
Florida +3.5
ECU +6
Nebraska +9

Aztecs....Ole

2011-09-23T17:22:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaWanted to get another game out there because I am not sure how much time I will have over the weekend....and that game is San Diego State +10.5 at Michigan.

Lots of intrigue in this one as UM coach Brady Hoke used to coach the Aztecs. That is an advantage for Big Blue but I like the Aztecs anyway because I like their talent on offense against that weak Michigan defense. Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman are NFL calibre talents and should keep SDSU in the game. Denard Robinson is great but ND game aside do you want to trust him in a catchup situation - which it might very well be in? I want to think about SDSU on the ML but feel warm and cozy with that 10.5 point blankie.

San Diego State +10.5
3 Units

Another Friday...

2011-09-22T17:58:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaI have had some success on Friday nights this season so I am going to try and replicate it by backing UCF +3 at BYU. Both teams are coming off a loss but BYU was hammered at home by Utah. Their play was so ugly that I think it might take more than a game for them to be right again. As for UCF. They lost at FIU, a loss that will likely look better and better as the season progresses. I love that UCF defense again and the fact that they have more athletes than BYU. The Cougars have to be precise to win and Knights will disrupt them sufficiently.

UCF +3
3 Units

When is the right time?

2011-09-22T17:01:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaMost bettors have been burned one time or another by getting down on a game too early or too late. I bring this up because my first play of the week is likely to move off its current number between now and kickoff, I am just not sure when or by how much. I just want to put it out there.

And what is that play?

West Virginia +6 vs LSU.

I like the Mountaineers for a bunch of reasons:

they are at home
the game is at night...you always get an little extra home juice under the lights
they can defend - this game should probably be pretty tight throughout
they can score - if they get down early they have the kind of offense that can comeback
they are the underdog...again more juice.

To me WVU is a very intriguing ML play but with the spread as a cushion I like'em even more.

West Virginia +6

3 Units

NFL Leans...err Lean

2011-09-21T13:59:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaSo many college leans but just one in the NFL right now.

(drumroll)

Buffalo +9

Tuesday Leans...lots of them

2011-09-20T16:33:00.002-04:00

I was totally surprised as to how many games made my early lean list.

Here goes:

UCF +3

SDSU +10

Temple +9.5

Arkansas +11.5

Oklahoma State +3.5

Southern Miss +3

West Virginia +6

Tulsa +32.5 (likely a cut with Kinne out)

USC +3

Update: Not bad

2011-09-20T10:18:00.001-04:00

Image by vernieman via FlickrIt has been a pretty good start to the football season...and way too long since I updated the number.

As you can see below 2011 has gone pretty well

44-37-2 +22.44 Units

Get it Fast...WVU

2011-09-16T12:06:00.001-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeI had WVU +2 in my leans post yesterday and all along thought it was a great spot to play the ML. I mean how many games finish with a 2 point spread right. The number is coming down +1 or pick in some places, and will likely continue to do so with Maryland just announcing some suspensions at WR. I think this will be the game that WVU finally puts together 4 quarters of solid football. They could easily win by ten. I would bet them all the way to -3 but why not take them now when the value is even better.

WVU +1
3 Units

NFL Friday Leans

2011-09-16T10:49:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaAs a follow up to the CFB leans yesterday here are my NFL leans.

Tampa Bay +3
Arizona +3.5
Cincinnati +3.5

Thursday CFB Leans

2011-09-15T17:46:00.000-04:00

Image by david_shankbone via FlickrIt seems that a lot of people like seeing my leans so here you go. CFB version first.

WVU +2
Temple +7.5 - should have got down at early +9 or 10
Michigan State +4.5 - already played
FIU +5
Arkansas State +24 (they are 2-0 ATS)

There you have it

Another Surprise..NFL version

2011-09-15T17:08:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaI was doing a game write-up for capperspicks.com and the more I got into it the more I was surprised by the line in the Minnesota/Tampa game. Tampa is at +3 coming off a home loss facing a Vikings team that looked lifeless after the first 20 minutes against San Diego. Unlike others I don't see TB regressing too much this year. I like their young playmakers. On the Minnesota side other than Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin there is not much going on. I would have made it +3 going the other way so I have to jump on this one. Will be interested to see if it moves.

Tampa Bay +3
3 units

Surprised to see..

2011-09-14T12:38:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaSorry for being quiet on Saturday and Sunday...hopefully you capitalized on Friday nights double victory.

Usually I wait until later in the week before I make up my mind about football games but in this case I wanted to get out there early because I was absolutely shocked at one of the lines I saw.

Want to guess?

Michigan State +4.5 (5 in some spots) at Notre Dame. I don't know if this is a setup or not but I can not see how you can give a team that has turned the ball over the way ND has an advantage over MSU who played as clean as possible last week. Sure their might be a revenge factor and home field advantage but given what we have seen and the pressure on ND I would have thought it would amount to 3 points tops. Even then I might have made MSU -3 just to get the public loaded up on ND for a huge Vegas payday.

If you have a compelling argument in favour of the ND side I am all ears.

Michigan State +4.5
3 units

PS you might even be able to get more with MSU closer to game day.

Friday Night Football

2011-09-09T16:40:00.001-04:00

Image via WikipediaSo close last night with NO. Not sure what coach Payton was thinking - who would you rather trust O-Line/Ingram or Drew Brees? The only redeeming thing was that I threw in some money at NO +8.5 in game when they went down early. I almost never do that was feeling the energy of opening night.

I posted FIU yesterday at +4 and now it is +3.5 in most places. A little bit of movement on that one but how about the other game tonight. I was interested in Mizzou at +7 but at +9.5 I really like them. I didn't expect this one to move like it did and it could be just because it is early and people are giddy with their money a little. Mizzou was OK against Miami last night but I am not sure we learned anything about ASU in their opener. They are calling for a "blackout" tonight but can they live up to expectations. This team has been letting us down ever since Erickson took over and this could be another spot.

Missouri +9.5
3 units

FIU + 4 - Mean Logo Too

2011-09-08T15:35:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaDid anyone else watch Louisville-Murray State last week. It was the first game of the year and all I saw was how not very good Louisville is. That is why I am high on Florida International at +4 on Friday night. Because they play in the Sun Belt many don't know much about the Golden Panthers but they might have the best all-purpose player in the NCAA's - T.Y. Hilton and are coming off a SBC co-championship. This is no slouchy team. They shook off the rust against North Texas and now they are looking for a BCS scalp. Get em soon as the number is coming down right now.

FIU + 4
3 units

Gotta Get Down on Opener Right?

2011-09-07T17:46:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaIt sort of feels like you aren't really in the game if you don't post a play for the NFL opener right?

This games is especially tough for me because I love the Saints and I hate getting caught up in any sort of emotional bias.

Still I think there is great value on the NO side especially as the number sits at 4.5. Yes the Packers may have an emotional letdown post Super Bowl and in their home opener but lets not forget that NO is one of the better offensive teams in the league and a sneaky defense too. They are one of the few teams that can keep up with the Pack Attack and I like the focus on the running game this year. All in all Saints will given Green Bay all they can handle and could even win it.

Is it possible the first game of the year could be the best?

New Orleans Saints +4.5
3 units

Wednesday Leans

2011-09-07T12:58:00.000-04:00

Thanks for the anonymous comment about my leans from last week. Only one failed to come through but alas it was Troy who I made an official play late last week. Anyone have the guts to take Northwestern on the ML. I stuck with them +3.5 but wish I had shown more faith.

Here are a few games I am watching closely this week

FIU +4.5
Michigan +3.5
Mizzou +7

Those Trojans

2011-09-02T16:50:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaThe only thing more exciting than the games is the line movement...right. Yesterday I was pumped to get LSU +4.5 but I can see in some places the game is now at 3.5. No confirmation yet about Persa so I am going to leave that one out there. Still I want to add another game to the card and it is...Troy +16.

The Trojans are at Clemson and from the moment I saw this one I was surprised. Troy is always good for a fight against a BCS opponent and they are returning 8 from a very athletic defense. This is the first we will see of the new Clemson featuring Tajh Boyd at QB. Also, Clemson is missing their top two defenders from last year...sure they recruited well but it only takes a couple of blown assignments to cover.

This line hasn't moved so it should be good tomorrow - just in case you lose something overnight.

Troy +16
3 Units

Follow up Leans + Persa

2011-09-01T15:12:00.000-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeFor those who haven't seen it elsewhere NW QB Dan Persa is now considered doubtful. The lines were off for a while but I just saw the game come back on at +3 right now. Hoping that means his outlook is a little more certain.

As for the early week leans, looks like I missed the opportunity to get BG at +8. Still love them to possibly upset even at +6. The rest of the games are holding steady.

Just saw LSU at +4.5. Jumped on it and don't be surprised to see more about that game right here.

Tuesday leans

2011-08-30T15:32:00.000-04:00

After Northwestern there are bunch of dogs I am looking at that could become official plays. In no particular order they are:

Troy +16
USF +10
Bowling Green +8.5
Arkansas St +20.5
ECU +20.5

Stay tuned and feel free to fire away at me

Lets get this party started - Northwestern +3

2011-08-30T14:03:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaThe game that leaped out at me this week is one that gets lost on a deep schedule and that is Northwestern vs Boston College. Two schools from BCS conferences looking to get off to good starts and confirm their dark horse status.

Right now the line on this one is BC -2.5 to -3 in most places and obviously I like Northwestern. There has been some talk lately about the possibility that NW QB Dan Persa might not play. If he is out than this is definitely a non play but assuming he is in there than I like the Wildcats chances to not only cover but upset the Eagles. I just don't see how BC is going to score many points with RB Montel Harris out and backup Andre Williams banged up. They are miserable in the passing game. Sure the BC defense is stout but Persa has just enough wiggle to make the plays that win games.

Note: BC is 1-7 ATS in last 8 home games.

This one should be very entertaining.

Northwestern +3
3 units

Football is Coming...I promise

2011-08-30T09:40:00.000-04:00

Dear Gang,

Sorry it has been so quiet of late. I have been trying to do my homework for the upcoming football season and baseball has become even harder to wager with so many teams out of the race and so many new faces dotting the rosters - bless you Nathan Eovaldi.

Totally psyched about CFB kicking off on Thursday night and I promise I will have some games for the weeks opening card throughout the rest of the week.

Stick with me...Thanks.

The Wiesguy

PS - Anyone gambling on some SU upsets this weekend...I am all ears and love to discuss.

Monday night MLB

2011-08-22T17:43:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaI hate to pick and run but here goes for tonight. I like the Cubbies behind Ryan Dempster to steal one from the Braves. Jair Jurrjens deals tonight but he hasn't been right since coming back and we faded him correctly last week.

Also, I am going to get behind the Dodgers and their rookie Eovaldi against the Cards and Carpenter. The Cards don't have much to play for anymore and Carpenter has been wildly unpredictable all season. At 2.75 I will back a rookie who has shown he can get it done thus far.

Chicago Cubs

3Units

Los Angeles Dodgers

3 Units

Been a while...Two plays tonight

2011-08-17T17:27:00.001-04:00

Image by VadimK via FlickrI got poked that it was time for another play so at least one person is paying attention out there.

Truth is there are two games I like this evening.

The first is Florida @ Colorado. Fish starter Ricky Nolasco has been red hot lately but did you also know that he has never lost to the Rockies (5-0) and that includes 3 starts at Coors field, the venue tonight. Mike Stanton has been red hot too swinging some big lumber. His opponent - Aaron Cook who is 2-7 with an ERA over 5. Tons of value tonight on Florida.

Florida Marlins
3 Units

The other game I like is San Francisco @ Atlanta. I like always like Matt Cain and would normally like Jair Jurrjens too but he is just off the DL and might not be working as deep into the game as we are used. Also, I think the Giants should be motivated to avoid a season sweep against Atlanta, a very likely playoff opponent. Again great value.

San Francisco Giants.
3 Units

If one of these two payoffs we will be positive for the day...if both...Sizzler!!

Which Conference would you choose?

2011-08-17T15:14:00.000-04:00

Image via WikipediaI am thinking more and more that I need to even further specialize my football coverage by giving extra attention to a particular conference this year. What do you think?

Leave me a comment and let know which conference - I am thinking one of the non-majors where the smaller action could reveal some real opportunities.

Week 6: Oklahoma vs Texas | College Football 2011: 27 Underdogs To Bet On In 2011 Games | Bleacher Report

2011-08-16T12:50:00.000-04:00

Week 6: Oklahoma vs Texas | College Football 2011: 27 Underdogs To Bet On In 2011 Games | Bleacher Report

One of the best rivalries in college football for sure but this year it seems like it will be a real mismatch, not dissimilar to 2010. Unless Oklahoma gets upset by the Seminoles in week 3 I expect the number to drift into double digits. Until seeing the Longhorns on the field I wouldn't get behind them unless it was +14 right now. Clearly I am not high on them racing back to the top of the Big 12 and nation.

Week 6: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech | College Football 2011: 27 Underdogs To Bet On In 2011 Games | Bleacher Report

2011-08-16T12:31:00.000-04:00

Week 6: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech | College Football 2011: 27 Underdogs To Bet On In 2011 Games | Bleacher Report

I like the upset potential for the Hurricanes here as by this time they should have already decided upon their QB and had some success (like beating Ohio State in week 3). They could certainly be undefeated at this point and if thew beat the Hokies they would be 2-0 in the ACC having kncoked off their toughest road competition as well.

If you can get this one at 9.5 points right now I would take it as I imagine results between now and then will bring it to something like 6.5.

Last Minute - Brewers

2011-08-11T17:19:00.002-04:00

Image via WikipediaThe Brewers are rolling and have been especially strong against St. Louis this season. I was surprised that they were the dog tonight with ace Yovani Gallardo facing off against Chris Carpenter. Last time Gallardo pitched against St. Louis - 1 hit shutout, meanwhile Carpenter is O-2 and has been hit hard by the Brewers this year. I thought this one would be even money but have to take the Brewers on the plus.

Milwaukee Brewers
3 Units

Finally some Football

2011-08-11T16:43:00.001-04:00

Image via WikipediaI think the title of this post says it all. Tonight I am going to back the Ravens +3 against Philadelphia. The Eagles certainly won the preseason but tonight they will be resting a lot of their new toys. Here is hoping that the Eagles stink it up in the preseason to bring some value to them when they kick off for real in a few weeks. Ravens are always fun to back when they feel like they might be getting disrespected. Even if it is preseason.

Baltimore Ravens +3
3 Units

Stat Geek Perspective: Preseason College Football Polls « Notes from the Sports Nerds

2011-08-10T10:50:00.001-04:00

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeStat Geek Perspective: Preseason College Football Polls « Notes from the Sports Nerds

I always have to start by saying I love the stuff from TeamRankings.com.

The thing that piqued my interest from this piece was how often teams 3 and/or 4 fall completely out of the rankings. It doesn't say how to identify a team that will sink but clearly if that is happening there are some upsets to take advantage of. Probably more than one to drop them completely out of the poll.

Lets look at some potential losses for current 3 and 4 teams:

Oregon: LSU, @Washington, @Stanford, USC

LSU: Oregon, @MissSt, @WVU, Florida, @Tenn, @ALA, Arkansas.

Will this a year where this applies

Other stuff from me

2011-08-10T10:41:00.001-04:00

Sometimes I forget that people might want to see other contributions I am making to the online gambling discussion.

Here is a link to a PAC 12 conference pieces I wrote for CappersPicks.com. It is one of several I have done and will do for the site.

Enjoy!!

UnderDogBlog

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